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This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
The NBA gets right down to business in the first full week of the new calendar year with a robust nine-game slate, one that features plenty of star power but not a lot of expected scoring. In fact, of the games with a posted total on the board at DraftKings Sportsbook as of early Monday morning, only one, Kings-Warriors, carries a tally of over 230 points.
Another candidate for that distinction that could emerge later in the day, however, if Luka Doncic and James Harden are both available. The health of the two stars is some of the biggest news to track over the course of the day after both missed their team's most recent games.
In terms of how competitive oddsmakers expect the ledger to be, there's a bit of everything when it comes to point spreads. There's one projected blowout in Pistons-Bucks, while the Hawks, Heat and Sixers are also each favored by at least 6.5 points. The five other contests carry lines of 5.0 points or less.
Slate Overview
Here's a look at the three games with the highest projected totals on Monday's slate:
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors (Projected total: 232.5 points)
That a game involving the Warriors carries the highest projected total is no surprise, considering Golden State is averaging an NBA-high 111.5 possessions per game, surrenders an NBA-high 123.7 points per contest and is yielding a Western Conference-high 42.5 percent success rate from three-point range. The Dubs are also coming off a spectacular 137-point outburst against the Trail Blazers that featured a career-high 62-point haul from Stephen Curry, and they've now scored at least 116 points on three occasions while giving up at least 120 in all but one of their six games. Sacramento is nowhere near as weak defensively, but they have put up between 119 and 125 points in three of their first six.
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (Projected total: 223.5 points)
These two teams have surprised in the early going, forging a combined seven wins in 12 games after each was among the NBA's worst last season. Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing some especially impressive defense, as they're allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (104.7), including just 96.0 over the last three. The Hawks have been a bit more giving with 112.2 points per game surrendered, but each squad is currently ranked in the bottom half of the league in pace. Nevertheless, with stars like Trae Young and Julius Randle on the floor, there are still spots to focus on here from a DFS perspective.
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets (Projected total:*No total as of Monday morning due to injuries*)
As already alluded to, a big factor in whether this game goes from being just an average environment for DFS production to an elite one hinges on whether Doncic and Harden can overcome their injuries. Dallas did show some fight without Doncic on Sunday against the Bulls while putting up 108 points, but their overall upside is certainly capped without him. The Rockets are arguably in much better shape even if Harden sits out again due to the presence of John Wall, Christian Wood and Eric Gordon, who've each gotten their seasons off to excellent starts.
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Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE:Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Key Injuries
Potential Load Management Day: Blake Griffin, DET
James Harden, HOU (ankle) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Harden was a late scratch from Saturday's game with an ankle sprain and appears set to be a game-time decision Monday. John Wall, Eric Gordon and Christian Wood would likely be the biggest beneficiaries in terms of increased usage if Harden sits.
Luka Doncic, DAL (quadriceps) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Doncic is dealing with a left quad contusion, and his status will likely become clearer after shootaround. If he were to sit out, Jalen Brunson, who exploded for 31 points against the Bulls as the primary ball handler Sunday, would likely be the biggest beneficiary. Both Tim Hardaway and Josh Richardson could also see modest usage bumps.
PJ Washington, CHA (thumb) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Washington left Saturday's game against the Sixers with a thumb injury and his status comes down to a game-time decision. Jalen McDaniels and Miles Bridges would be in line for more work should Washington sit out.
Darius Garland, CLE (shoulder) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Garland is dealing with a shoulder strain suffered against the Hawks on Saturday. If he's forced to miss Monday's game, Collin Sexton could potentially shift over to point guard, or Dante Exum could draw the start in Garland's place.
Evan Fournier, ORL (back) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Fournier appears to be a 50/50 proposition for Monday's game after missing Sunday's practice. Terrence Ross would likely move into the starting five should Fournier sit out.
Josh Jackson, DET (ankle) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Jackson was forced from Sunday's game against the Celtics due to an ankle injury. Delon Wright would likely draw the start at shooting guard should Jackson sit out Monday.
Alec Burks, NYK (ankle) Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Burks is unable to suit up, both starting two-guard Reggie Bullock and Austin Rivers could be the beneficiaries in terms of some extra minutes.
Kevin Huerter, ATL (ankle) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Huerter rolled his ankle against the Cavaliers on Saturday, but he may have a chance of suiting up Monday. If he ultimately sits out, it's likely Cam Reddish logs some extra minutes behind De'Andre Hunter at small forward.
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Jeff Teague, BOS (ankle) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Teague sprained his left ankle in Sunday's game against the Pistons, forcing his exit from the contest. It may therefore be a challenge for him to suit up just 24 hours later, and if he's unable to, impressive rookie Payton Pritchard would be in line for extra minutes behind Marcus Smart at PG.
Tyrese Haliburton, SAC (wrist) Status: OUT
Haliburton has been averaging 26.8 minutes, so his absence from the rotation is a significant one. Fellow rookie Robert Woodard, a second-round pick, could step into Haliburton's spot behind Buddy Hield, but more experienced options Cory Joseph and Justin James could also see extra run.
Other injuries of note
Avery Bradley, MIA (COVID-19 protocol) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Rajon Rondo, ATL (knee) Status: DOUBTFUL
Kevin Knox, NYK (hand/knee) Status: PROBABLE
James Ennis, ORL (hamstring) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Mike Scott, PHI (knee) Status: OUT
Matthew Dellavedova (concussion) Status: OUT
Kevin Porter, CLE (personal) Status: OUT
Isaac Okoro, CLE (foot) Status: QUESTIONABLE
Dennis Smith, NYK (quadriceps) Status: DOUBTFUL
Omari Spellman, NYK (knee) Status: DOUBTFUL
Frank Ntilikina, NYK (knee) Status: OUT
Al-Farouq Aminu, ORL (knee) Status: OUT
Aleksej Pokusevski, OKC (concussion) Status: OUT
Sam Merrill, MIL (ankle) Status: OUT
Pat Connaughton, MIL (groin) Status: DOUBTFUL
Javonte Green, BOS (COVID-19 protocol) Status: OUT
NOTABLE LONG-TERM INJURIES: Kemba Walker, BOS (knee);Kevin Love, CLE (calf);Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (knee);Cody Zeller, CHA (hand);Jeremy Lamb, IND (knee); T.J. Warren, IND (foot);Furkan Korkmaz, PHI (thigh); Obi Toppin, NYK (calf); Trevor Ariza, OKC (personal)
Elite Players
There are just three players with five-figure salaries on Monday's slate despite there being nine games on the ledger, with James Harden ($11,100), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800) and Luka Doncic ($10,300) all fitting the bill. However, as already noted, both Harden and Doncic carry questionable designations after missing their team's most recent games. Each would be excellent options if healthy in a game against each other Monday, but further clarity on their respective statuses may not be gleaned until later in the day.
There is also plenty of potential for elite production from a number of players in the high four figures: Joel Embiid ($9,900), Trae Young ($9,800), Domantas Sabonis ($9,500), a red-hot Stephen Curry ($9,300), Andre Drummond ($9,200), Julius Randle ($9,000), Nikola Vucevic ($8,800), Jayson Tatum ($8,600) and Jaylen Brown ($8,300). The Boston pair are particularly interesting given how well each has started the season and their performances against the Raptors in last summer's semifinal-round series.
Expected Chalk
All of the names mentioned in the Elite Players section are likely to be very popular Monday, although the fact there are 18 teams in action will inevitably lead to some differentiation. If either or both of Harden and Doncic are sidelined, the remaining top-shelf players could see a bump in popularity, while many of the remaining members of the injured players' starting fives – John Wall and Eric Gordon if Harden misses, Jalen Brunson and perhaps Tim Hardaway if Doncic is out – should also be rostered fairly heavily.
Key Values
Clint Capela, ATL vs. NY ($6,100)
Capela was ramped up slowly over his first two games after a delayed start to the season due to residual Achilles soreness, playing just 20 minutes apiece. The veteran big man's production was still solid on a per-minute basis, as he produced 23.75 and 23.5 DK points against the Pistons and Nets, respectively. Upon seeing the 30-minute mark, he sped up the pace with 35.75 and 46.0 DK points in his next two games. Having logged a season-high 31 minutes in his most recent contest against the Cavaliers on Saturday, Capela appears ready for perhaps another small bump in workload against a Knicks team that's allowing the most points (28.3) and second-most blocks (3.8) per game to centers, along with the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating (35.7) to the position. It's also worth noting Capela remains an excellent candidate for DK's double-double bonus, having achieved the feat in each of those last two games and having pulled down double-digit rebounds in three of four contests thus far.
Harrison Barnes, SAC at GS ($5,600)
Barnes carries a particularly appealing salary for a player averaging 32.6 DK points over his first six games, and 38.0 DK points in three away games on the strength of 54.8 shooting. Barnes has scored at least 30 DK points in five games, with his career-high 8.0 rebounds per contest certainly playing a part. The veteran wing now gets an appealing matchup against one of his former squads, with the Warriors continuing to play at the NBA's fastest pace and yielding the second-highest offensive efficiency rating (142.0) as a team. Golden State allows an NBA-high 44.5 percent three-point shooting, and the Dubs give up a particularly elevated 47.2 percent success rate from distance to small forwards specifically. With his minutes locked into the mid-30s on average and some extra possessions to work with Monday, Barnes makes for an eye-catching play at his salary.
Bobby Portis, MIL vs. DET ($4,900)
Portis has rather quietly gotten his Bucks career off to an excellent start, hitting the ground running with between 25.25 and 35.0 DK points in four of six games. The floor-spacing big man is averaging a solid 22.6 minutes off the bench and is shooting 52.1 percent from the fllor, including 41.7 percent from three-point range. Portis is capable of contributing across the stat sheet, and he gets a soft matchup Monday in the form of a Pistons team that's ranked in the bottom 10 in rebounds (16.8), assists (4.6) and steals (1.4) allowed per game to centers. They've given up the most blocks per contest (4.0) to the position as well. Bucks starting center Brook Lopez is averaging a career-low 21.5 minutes through six games, meaning Portis should see some decent run on the second unit once again, and he's proven capable of strong returns on his salary already.
Other value plays to consider: Seth Curry, PHI vs. CHA ($5,600); LaMelo Ball, CHA at PHI ($5,600); Richaun Holmes, SAC at GS ($5,600); James Wiseman, GS vs. SAC ($5,000); Josh Hart, NO vs. IND ($4,900): Duncan Robinson, MIA vs. OKC ($4,600); JaVale McGee, CLE at ORL ($4,500); Hamidou Diallo, OKC at MIA ($3,800); Jalen Brunson, DAL at HOU ($3,300)
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